Immigration Surge Ahead: Former Official Foretells Migration Boom Ahead for Australia

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The ex-deputy of the immigration division is convinced that the government has not accurately gauged net migration, which could be higher than expected.

Australia is poised to welcome over 300,000 new migrants this 2023, a stunning 25% increase from the Treasury forecast due to surging arrivals. This news comes straight from a former senior immigration official.

According to Abul Rizvi, the previous deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, Treasury forecasts that presumed a population increase of 235,000 per year due to migration was an “underestimation” compared to actual net figures. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, these were considered long-term averages.

Rizvi’s involvement has been initiated as the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, decidedly alluded to the potential utilisation of a Business Council of Australia proposition for permanent migration to be fixed at a specified proportion of the overall population. This measure would automatically raise today’s cap on immigration from 195,000 people.

On Friday, when asked regarding the BCA submission to the migration review, Chalmers said that he was eager for a dialogue concerning “if there is an approach that we can simplify some of these procedures to achieve the proper balance while recognising that immigration should not substitute training.”

The October budget report predicted a net overseas migration of 235,000 in 2022-23 and 2023-24. This estimation is based on the expectation that immigration will continue as it did before the pandemic began.

The population statement, released by the government last Friday, further clarified that this figure was derived from an average of 14 years spanning 2004 – 2018.

Australia is expected to welcome 190,000 permanent migrants and 13,750 humanitarian migrants annually. Additionally, 66,000 individuals are projected to stay in Australia for several years without becoming permanent residents. 

Concurrently, an estimated 20,000 citizens move away from the country yearly, while 15,000 people gain Australian citizenship status.

Rizvi reported that the actual arrivals this year are significantly more than anticipated, and because of it, Treasury has underestimated net migration.

“When there are more incoming visitors than outgoing, a sizable percentage will inevitably increase net migration,” Rizvi said.

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