Recent Agri-Commodity News on Wheat, Corn, Soybean, and Rapeseed 

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In the middle of May, wheat prices reached all-time highs, but they have since sharply declined. Although the wheat market saw a roller-coaster year in 2022, there is still room for growth going into Q1 2023. Prices are anticipated to stay historically high as the 2023–24 season draws near.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the pivotal event of the year. Since August, a booming grain corridor has shipped 14.4 Mt from the war-affected Black Sea. Even while markets have unwound the conflict risk premium since June and prices are trading near their start-of-year levels, there are still a lot of risks.

Agri-Commodity News

Scientists anticipate a decline in wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine during the 2023–2024 growing season. The likelihood of considerable growth in the area to enable the US or EU to make up for the output loss from the Black Sea is still remote. The run of consecutive record Australian crops could stop as La Nina’s strength declines further out, signifying the end of wetter Australian conditions that previously benefited Australia’s wheat output.

The CRM Agri team has a pessimistic forecast for corn in 2023. However, this outlook is waning, and there is hope for a Brazilian second crop.

China has reached a phytosanitary agreement with Brazil that allows importing substantial amounts of Brazilian maize. This reduces China’s dependency on US and Ukrainian corn. This impacts the US because Ukraine’s conflict severely affected output and export capacity.

The dry conditions brought by La Nina in South America and the high demand for the country’s constrained soybean supply boosted soybean markets into 2022 in a bullish rising trend. Due to strong Chinese demand and low supplies, soybean markets are bucking the downward trend in grain prices. According to our forecast, prices will average $1,450 per Bsh in Q1 2023 before declining as Brazilian supplies become accessible.

“Although both fertiliser and fuel prices have pulled back from their 2022 peaks, both remain highly elevated and, in CRM Agri’s view, the consequences of a divergence in cost of production will be a larger area of soybeans, at the expense of corn,” said Jane Bryne of Feed Navigator.

Over the past year, rapeseed markets have been incredibly volatile, beginning the year on a bullish upward trend due to the effects of the Canadian drought.

In the coming months, we anticipate that the worldwide [rapeseed] supply shortage will ease further and that prices will continue to decline for the majority of the upcoming year, pencilling in an average price of €550/t ($585/t) for Q1.

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